Election Prediction

When this post goes online, I’ll be on a plane traveling from Vancouver to Ottawa. I thought I’d try my hat at the whole election prediction thing.

Conservatives: 135 seats
Liberals: 80 seats
NDP: 35 seats
Bloc: 60 seats
Green: 0 seats (I’m sorry Elizabeth)

I’m not trying to be particularly precise. Everything is rounded to the nearest 5 seats and I figure everything is +- 5 seats anyways.

Anyone else have a prediction?

UPDATE: I got an e-mail from a friend suggesting 162 CPC / 60 Liberals

UPDATE: Results

CPC: 143 (+8)
Liberals: 76 (-4)
NDP: 37 (+2)
Bloc: 50 (-10)
IND: 2 (+2)

So I was within 5 on the Liberals and the NDP. My bet that the Liberal and Conservatives would lose ground in Quebec never materialized. Instead, my failure to anticipate the Conservative breakthrough in the 906 area code made up the difference for the Conservative numbers.

Total variance (to nearest 5): 25 seats (8% off)